A Framework for High-Stakes Leadership
- Mar 6
- 3 min read
By Mark Howell
I'd like to share a simple, effective framework for leadership in high-stakes situations that I learned over the course of nearly 30 years in public safety and emergency management; the "OODA Loop", you've likely heard of it, but not the full story.
Here's the version you've already seen or heard:
Observe -> Orient -> Decide -> Act!
The common presentation is "If you just spin the loop faster, you win! Interpersonally, in business, and at life in general."
The inventor was an Air Force pilot, "Ghengis" John Boyd, who taught at the USAF version of Top Gun. He studied mechanical engineering, physics, and economics, and his original "OODA loop" looked like an engineering schematic; what he was really doing was dissecting our brains and thought processes, and putting them down on paper.
The point wasn't "do these steps faster", it was "understand yourself first, then others," and it applies from individuals to organizations. If empathy is "putting yourself in someone else's shoes for a few mile hike", then this is the framework to use. Let's get walking.
Observe: Ever seen that video that tells you to count the number of times a ball is passed, and at the end asks if you saw the gorilla? "What gorilla?!" You got so fixated on not missing a pass, that you miss the gorilla walking through the frame! "Tunnel vision" and "task fixation" make us miss critical pieces of information. Taking a step back, a mental pause, to soften your focus and re-evaluate, is key to helping broaden your observations.
Orient: the heavy lifting part for our brains, where we build the frameworks and reference cues upon which we base our decision-making. Key things that play parts include cultural influences, bias, and past experiences, along with how you break down information (analysis) and put it back together to relate to your world (synthesis). Something to do NOW, before anything high-stakes pops up: do some deep self-reflection. Think about how you think, examine how your culture, upbringing, past experience, and bias all influence your decision-making in a low-stress setting; use that knowledge to temper their grip on your orientation process when the stakes are higher. Conversely, the more you know about others' cultures, biases, and past experiences, the better you can anticipate how they'll orient to a situation.
Decide: We can't just "do whatever", not for long anyway. All decision spaces have two types of guidance that serve as boundaries. Explicit guidance is typically external and spelled out somewhere: law, policy, that directive from your boss. Implicit guidance can be internal and external: values, beliefs, ethics, and morals. Culture often reappears here, exerting its influence as well. Truly understanding your decision space – and others' – can help you map out different outcomes. In public safety we're taught "slow is smooth and smooth is fast". Taking that extra beat before making a decision, making sure you have all the relevant info, and your orientation is realistic, is key here. "Respond, don't react" is another great saying that applies. In the wildland fire service, we coined: "Stop. Think. Talk. Then act."
Act: Once we act, we immediately start looking for responses and changes, are they desirable? Undesirable? Is something else happening, or someone else acting now? These are the "unfolding circumstances" that feed into the next Observation phase.
I hope this has been a helpful primer, there's so much more to go into that can't be covered in 600 words. Deeper discussion is always welcome via email: mark@groundedtruths.com.
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